What does world-systems analysis predict for the future of the world?

 By, Sher Vogel

As seen on nearly every media source today, “bailout” is the buzzword of choice.  According to Immanuel Wallerstein (2003), father of world-systems theory, it will be for a while.  Government bailouts are one of many signs that the world-system is changing.  So what exactly does world-systems analysis predict for the future of the world?   World-systems predict many things for the future, but in this article I will focus on three major processes that will happen almost concurrently: (1) an increase in anarchy, (2) the demise of the capitalist world-system, and (3) the emergence of a new world order. 

Anarchy will increase

            One process world-systems analysis predicts for the future of the world is an increase in anarchy.  As Wallerstein (2003: p.159) indicates, we are moving into a time of massive local, regional and world disorders, a time of trouble. The contradictions of capitalist civilization have put the modern world-system into a systematic crisis.  Increasing inequality in both the core and periphery in the next twenty-five to 50 years will lead to: (1) massive migrations from South to North, (2) a decline in the efficiency of state structures, and (3) an increase of civil wars (Wallerstein 1997; 2003).   This will not be traditional anarchism, but rather deterministic chaos.  For the world-system will endure a cascade of bifurcation points until a new structure of long-term equilibrium is established.   Today, we seem to be in the midst of a process of cascading bifurcations that may last some 50 years or more (Wallerstein 2003: p.156) 

Capitalist world-system will face its demise

            The second process world-system analysis predicts for the future of the world is the demise of the capitalist world-system as we know it.  Each bifurcation will lead the system to a point of decision in which the system will have to collapse or readjust to survive.  Capitalism is a world-system defined by capital accumulation, traditionally from the periphery to the core.  At one point in the near future, there will be little left to accumulate from the periphery.  The world will shift into a Kondratieff B-phase lasting 50 to 60 years.  When profits from production decrease, large capitalists will shift their profit-seeking activities to the speculative financial realm (Wallerstein 1997).   As the capitalist world-system begins to demise, a new guarantor will succeed with a new global order lasting 100-150 years (Wallerstein 2005: p.1277). 

New world order will emerge

         The third process world-system analysis predicts for the future of the world is the emergence of a new world order.  While the capitalist world system is in the process of its demise, a new world order will arise. The guarantor who rescues world-system will determine the new world order.  Wallerstein (2003) predicts the new order will be one of three options: (1) neo-feudalism, (2) a sort of democratic fascism, and/or (3) a highly decentralized, highly egalitarian world order.   One speculation is that China could arise as one of the locus for accumulation and stimulate a new political order (Wallerstein 1997; Ikeda 2003; Ciccantell & Bunker 2004).  But for the China-centered post-capitalist world-system to become a truly egalitarian alternative, China must (1) become a competitive actor economically with the core countries and (2) restore its social welfare commitment (Ikeda 2003).  Wallerstein (1997) adds that in such a scenario, we could expect considerable tension between the E.U. and East Asia about fifty years from now, and a probable triumph of East Asia.  With the capitalist world-system demising, we can be sure some new historical order will emerge.  We cannot be sure what that order will be (Wallerstein 2003: p.156).

            The struggle today is not about whether or not we are in favor of capitalism as a world-system. The struggle is about what should replace it, given the implosion of the present world-system. (Wallerstein 2005: p.1275). Whichever option is chosen, it will not be the end of history, but in a real sense its beginning (Wallerstein 2003: p.163).   The world-systems analysis predictions for the future may seem dismal and scary with the rise of anarchy and demise of the capitalist world-system.  Nevertheless, a world-systems analysis of the future of the world is ultimately a positive one because it believes in the rise of a more egalitarian world-system for all.

Bibliography

Ciccantell, Paul & Bunker, Stephen. 2004. "The Economic Ascent of China and the Potential for Restructuring the Capitalist World-Economy." Journal of World-Systems Research 10 (3).

Ikeda, Satoshi. 2003. "U.S. Hegemony and East Asia: An Exploration of China's Challenge in the 21st Century."  Pp. 162-79 in New Theoretical Directions for the 21st Century World-System, edited by Wilma A. Dunaway. Praeger Press.

Wallerstein, Immanuel. 1997. "The Rise of East Asia or the World-System in the 21st Century." Paper presented at the Institute of International Studies, Meiji Gakuin University.

Wallerstein, Immanuel. 1998. "Uncertainty and Creativity." American Behavioral Scientist 42 (3).

Wallerstein, Immanuel.  2003. Historical Capitalism with Capitalist Civilization. Verso Press.

Wallerstein, Immanuel. 2005. "After Developmentalism and Globalization, What?" Social Forces 83 (3).

 

Economic Crisis….Terrorist Attacks….The Sky is falling Down
By, Danoosh Kapadia

Do you remember that childhood tale when Chicken Little ran around screaming, the sky is falling … ? Turn on your television set and you'll see the same hysteria perpetuating itself today. Two months ago Hurricane Ike destroyed Texas' Gulf Coast. Following that, in the last six months the price of oil has fallen nearly a $100 a barrel. Being employed in the oil and gas industry, I can ensure you that the fall in gas prices hit business in the gulf coast harder than Ike.

The week after Ike, the model of investment banking—Wall Street as we know it—collapsed. Before Washington could even deal with this crisis, the big three auto giants decided they could no longer stand on their own. They needed a financial crutch to prevent them from collapsing and take out most of the jobs and industries in the Mid-West. Then, the devastating terrorist attack in Mumbai struck and essentially destabilized South Asia. This attack brought the Indian sub-continent on the brink of what many fear—a nuclear standoff. All I can say at this point is that my sympathies lie with President-Elect Obama and his crew. They are expected to be saviors from heaven and alleviate the world of this pain and economic devastation.

Truth be told, we're in a depression. The government would like to make us believe it's a recession, a recession in its final stage. With the misery index being the worst in a decade and a half though, it seems that we are at the bottom of a deep hole and it is going to take some time to dig out of it. Having personally witnessed three major calamities within the last two years, from the Virginia Tech massacre, to Hurricane Ike, and now the terrorist attacks on Mumbai, I have learned a few lessons.

1. What seems like the end of the world today will be old, forgotten news tomorrow.

2. If you were directly hit by the tragedy, seek immediate help and begin the long road to recovery.

3. If you were lucky and managed to escape unscathed, shed your tears, take time to accept what has happened, then get up, dust off your hands and get back onto the bicycle of life and move forward—just like you did when you were a kid.

4. Lastly, the most difficult but most crucial thing is: do not become engulfed by fear. Just because a tragedy happened once does not mean it will happen again. Just because your neighbor got hit, doesn't mean you're next. Remember, the only thing to fear is fear itself.

5. In times like this, good leaders are the ones that shine through and steer the floundering crowds. It's time to put your Boy Scout skills to use and lead the pack.

So all in all, if you've been laid-off take time to enjoy the things you wish you could do if you had time on your hands. Most of it doesn't cost a ton of money. Think about that business plan that's been on the back burner because you got caught up in the monotony of the nine to five. Pick up that skill you wish you could lean but never had the time. If you were unhappy with your career, take the time to do what's necessary to make a change.

If you weren't laid off, and perhaps your industry has slowed down a little, but you're relatively un-affected, please go out and spend your hard earned money on gifts and other fun things that make the holidays memorable. Any investment you would otherwise put it into will probably spend the money for you. Go and buy yourself a new car, a new home, or some new clothes, because by God you may never see these deals in your lifetime again. Just make sure you have enough cushion to carry you through if things get worse. If you panic just because the Wall Street Journal says not to spend money, who's going to stimulate our economy and bring us out of this mess?

Lastly, know that this is a good time to learn a few lessons especially if we're not paying the price. We are living in difficult times. Tough times don't last—tough people do.

 

MUMBAI MERI JAAN

By, Rohan Mathur

     The 26^th seems to be a bad omen for the Indian state. We had the Tsunami on Dec 26^th which was a natural disaster and then we had multiple intelligence failures that led to the massacre of freedom and democracy in India’s shining jewel-Mumbai. As written by a noted Kuwaiti journalist, “FORGIVING a terrorist should be left to God. But fixing their appointment with God is entirely our responsibility”. The biggest city of the world’s largest democracy was attacked and shattered physically but the terrorist failed to crush its spirit. The jihadi terrorist sent a clear message to the free world; they will not rest till they have their way of life implemented around the world. They attacked the very symbols that came to symbolize the success and lure of Mumbai. Lives of all stripes were shattered, some who had come to hotels to enjoy a quite meal with loved ones, some hanging out with friends at a café, some going back to their hometowns at the railway station and then some who had come to India lured by its rich culture and heritage. A rabbi and his family who found secular India to be their adopted homeland and in where they would start a new life. Their only fault being that they belonged to a free society which the terrorist wanted to destroy.

     As reported in the media and corroborated by Intelligence bureau (I.B.), the terrorist used the symbol that welcomed first time visitors to Mumbai, the gateway of India much alike the Statue of liberty or the Eiffel tower to enter and spread the terror. Shocked and horrified people around the world saw how a handful of men could hold a proud city of 15 million hostage. The Indian state looked weak and shattered. Regular condemnations from an inept government seemed to anger the people even more. A horrified nation saw as its symbols were raped. It took 60 hours of brave combat from the elite NSG commandos to liberate Mumbai. If it wasn’t for their heroism, there would be higher casualties. India truly lost its best and bravest that day. As the massacre winds from our memory, we need to take a pledge never to forget the people who did this to us. This was truly an international incident. Citizens from nearly 12 nations lost their lives with the attack on the Chabbad centre looking like a chapter straight out of a suspense novel.

     This incident brought out the best of Mumbai. The people realized that this could not go without demanding answers. No more would India take it lying down. Using public tools like Facebook and Orkut, ordinary citizens organized candle light vigils around the country and the world. As James Carville, a senior CNN contributor said,"We all became Mumbaikars that day." The nation tearfully saluted its heroes who perished defending freedom so that all of us could live to tell their story. Now that the pundits are out and analyzing the incident, passions are running high. The lone terrorist caught is believed to be from Pakistan and this will not be the first time such allegations have come to light. 

     The people of India and indeed the people of the world are expecting solid proof from the Investigators that the plot was hatched in Pakistan.  It will be in Pakistan’s national interest to co-operate fully and nothing less can be expected. The right noises are coming from Islamabad but what we need is solid action. India has the following demands – hand over Dawood Ibrahim to India and close down the terrorist camps that are operating in POK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). It will be in India’s interest to continue engaging Pakistan and nudge them to take part in surgical strikes across the border in terrorist camps. This would help reduces tensions and avoid the mention of nuclear arms. India should call Pakistans’s bluff and demand the terrorists to be handed over in a definite amount of time. To complicate matters, FBI and soon the Mossad will be involved. This would help put international pressure on Pakistan to act against its demons otherwise nuclear war may not be a part of fiction any more. The people of India have finally woken up from the slumber and our hope is so has the soft on terror Indian government. The resignation of the security chief is a step in the right direction but is too little too late for the victims.

     We are angry and we need to harness that anger in the right direction. No single community should be blamed as that would go against the very idea of India. India has to respond strongly to this act for its own sake and ensure security is even tighter in the future to ensure such a despicable act is never be allowed to violate the sovereignty of our country again. It has also been found that some of the terrorist held British passports. If true, this should be taken as a serious matter with the highest level of British government. They need to investigate the ghettosization of their minority communities. As the horrific London bombings of July 2005 showed, local British Muslims were involved. They need to learn from the US where all minority communities are allowed to hold their beliefs and can still harmonize with society at large. Sooner the British realize this; the better it will be for the world. 

     We now must pick up the remains and take a solemn pledge never to let this happen again. The very existence of the free world depends on what we do now. Telling the terrorists that they will not go unpunished would be a good start. Their aim is to destroy a free society but I am sure that the resilience of our democracy would stand this test. I will end by quoting the British foreign secretary who very aptly said this of the Mumbai attacks - This attack on India is an attack on all of us”. Enough is enough...terrorism must end!”

OBAMA’S FOREIGN POLICY PREDICAMENT

By, Adhvith Dhuddu

     Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book, Team of Rivals, about Abraham Lincoln’s Presidency appears to have profoundly influenced President-elect Obama’s cabinet picks as he surrounds himself with friends and foes. Although this speaks volumes about President-elect Obama’s personality and his magnanimous nature, it also depicts his underlying brilliance as a politician and an astute power broker. It will be interesting to watch how he juggles strong opinions from various channels to make sure it doesn’t cloud his unifying message of hope and change. The 44^th president faces escalating crises in the Middle East and south Asia, which just became that much more complex after the terrorists attacks in Mumbai, India. 

    Throughout the campaign, President-elect Obama stressed the importance of rebalancing troop levels in the Middle East by reducing troops in Iraq and deploying them to Afghanistan. He also highlighted the importance of diplomacy and co-operation with the new Pakistani government, which promised to eliminate extremists and radicals in the lawless Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) region along the Afghan-Pakistan border. The Pakistani government to some extent has followed up on their words with actions and stepped up military and combat operations in the NWFP and Waziristan areas after realizing the threat of terrorism to their own country.

    But the military and diplomacy equation changed drastically after 26/11 in Mumbai, as war mongering has gained ground, and the peace process between India and Pakistan is suspended indefinitely. Although war is unlikely, this forces a financially and militarily strained Pakistan to redistribute its troops to combat any increases in troop levels on the Indian side. Not only does this impinge on the ongoing efforts along the Afghan-Pakistan border, it also puts two nuclear nations on the brink of conflict for the second time in a decade.  

    The Clinton’s have come to be known as good friends of India, and Senator Clinton’s appointment as the next Secretary of State is both reassuring and encouraging. But the naming of Senator Clinton as Secretary of State was an ironic and bold step on President-elect Obama’s behalf. Millions of voters chose Obama over Clinton primarily due to their stark differences in foreign policy issues pertaining to diplomacy, use of force, and handling of wars. The Secretary of State, being a powerful voice for exactly these issues, passionate opinions on both sides could result in healthy debates or bruised feelings. The future holds immense challenges for President-elect Obama, and he needs the best brains to solve, challenge, reason and act on his behalf, and Hillary Clinton is undoubtedly one of the best.