What does world-systems analysis predict for the future of the world?
As seen on nearly every media source today, “bailout” is the buzzword of choice. According to Immanuel Wallerstein (2003), father of world-systems theory, it will be for a while. Government bailouts are one of many signs that the world-system is changing. So what exactly does world-systems analysis predict for the future of the world? World-systems predict many things for the future, but in this article I will focus on three major processes that will happen almost concurrently: (1) an increase in anarchy, (2) the demise of the capitalist world-system, and (3) the emergence of a new world order.
Anarchy will increase
One process world-systems analysis predicts for the future of the world is an increase in anarchy. As Wallerstein (2003: p.159) indicates, we are moving into a time of massive local, regional and world disorders, a time of trouble. The contradictions of capitalist civilization have put the modern world-system into a systematic crisis. Increasing inequality in both the core and periphery in the next twenty-five to 50 years will lead to: (1) massive migrations from South to North, (2) a decline in the efficiency of state structures, and (3) an increase of civil wars (Wallerstein 1997; 2003). This will not be traditional anarchism, but rather deterministic chaos. For the world-system will endure a cascade of bifurcation points until a new structure of long-term equilibrium is established. Today, we seem to be in the midst of a process of cascading bifurcations that may last some 50 years or more (Wallerstein 2003: p.156)
Capitalist world-system will face its demise
The second process world-system analysis predicts for the future of the world is the demise of the capitalist world-system as we know it. Each bifurcation will lead the system to a point of decision in which the system will have to collapse or readjust to survive. Capitalism is a world-system defined by capital accumulation, traditionally from the periphery to the core. At one point in the near future, there will be little left to accumulate from the periphery. The world will shift into a Kondratieff B-phase lasting 50 to 60 years. When profits from production decrease, large capitalists will shift their profit-seeking activities to the speculative financial realm (Wallerstein 1997). As the capitalist world-system begins to demise, a new guarantor will succeed with a new global order lasting 100-150 years (Wallerstein 2005: p.1277).
New world order will emerge
The third process world-system analysis predicts for the future of the world is the emergence of a new world order. While the capitalist world system is in the process of its demise, a new world order will arise. The guarantor who rescues world-system will determine the new world order. Wallerstein (2003) predicts the new order will be one of three options: (1) neo-feudalism, (2) a sort of democratic fascism, and/or (3) a highly decentralized, highly egalitarian world order. One speculation is that China could arise as one of the locus for accumulation and stimulate a new political order (Wallerstein 1997; Ikeda 2003; Ciccantell & Bunker 2004). But for the China-centered post-capitalist world-system to become a truly egalitarian alternative, China must (1) become a competitive actor economically with the core countries and (2) restore its social welfare commitment (Ikeda 2003). Wallerstein (1997) adds that in such a scenario, we could expect considerable tension between the E.U. and East Asia about fifty years from now, and a probable triumph of East Asia. With the capitalist world-system demising, we can be sure some new historical order will emerge. We cannot be sure what that order will be (Wallerstein 2003: p.156).
The struggle today is not about whether or not we are in favor of capitalism as a world-system. The struggle is about what should replace it, given the implosion of the present world-system. (Wallerstein 2005: p.1275). Whichever option is chosen, it will not be the end of history, but in a real sense its beginning (Wallerstein 2003: p.163). The world-systems analysis predictions for the future may seem dismal and scary with the rise of anarchy and demise of the capitalist world-system. Nevertheless, a world-systems analysis of the future of the world is ultimately a positive one because it believes in the rise of a more egalitarian world-system for all.
Bibliography
Ciccantell, Paul & Bunker, Stephen. 2004. "The Economic Ascent of China and the Potential for Restructuring the Capitalist World-Economy." Journal of World-Systems Research 10 (3).
Ikeda, Satoshi. 2003. "U.S. Hegemony and East Asia: An Exploration of China's Challenge in the 21st Century." Pp. 162-79 in New Theoretical Directions for the 21st Century World-System, edited by Wilma A. Dunaway. Praeger Press.
Wallerstein, Immanuel. 1997. "The Rise of East Asia or the World-System in the 21st Century." Paper presented at the Institute of International Studies, Meiji Gakuin University.
Wallerstein, Immanuel. 1998. "Uncertainty and Creativity." American Behavioral Scientist 42 (3).
Wallerstein, Immanuel. 2003. Historical Capitalism with Capitalist Civilization. Verso Press.
Wallerstein, Immanuel. 2005. "After Developmentalism and Globalization, What?" Social Forces 83 (3).
Posts
4 comments:
A well written article, but I disagree vehemently about the demise of capitalism.
Wouldn't the recent $15 billion bailout classify as a socialist tactic to save the capitalist system? How can that not be a sign of the demise?
The recent events are unprecedented and happen once in a few decades. The critics of capitalism use everything that's happening now to leverage their arguements and trash the most successful economic system practiced.
Even though I dont agree with the bailout, this can be classified as protectionistic, and not socialistic. And protectionsim has been aroud for a long time in this country and many countries.
The definition of capitalism is: Capitalism is an economic system in which capital goods are owned, operated and traded chiefly by private individuals or corporations for the purpose of profit. In no other country does this practice continue tremendously withtout fear of backlash or retribution day in and day out.
The arguements about the demise of capitalism have surfaced over and over again, during downturns, recessions and bad times when a few of the rich get away and some of the poor are caught lagging behind. The best way for the critics to vent their anger and concern is to blame the system!
An economic system will be doomed to failure if and only if it goes agaist the fundamental wants and needs of humans beings. Human being like making choices, like making money, like owning assets, etc. but dont like it when ownership is denied, are not allowed to make a living, etc. And capitalism is the only system that provides this and has stood the test of time. 3-4 years from now, everyone will be talking how this period was an amazing time to get in to get a part of the action.
Post a Comment